Tue, Oct 15, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 215 | 08 | 010 | 03 | 1 | 336 |
| CAR | 05 | 014 | 211 | 04 | 0 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 10:18CHIMarian HossaAssists: Brandon Saad, Andrew Shaw · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 3:54CARAlexander SeminAssists: Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–1
- P3 12:33CARRon HainseyUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 2. CAR Nathan Gerbe stopped
- 3. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 4. CAR Alexander Semin stopped
- 5. CHI Patrick Sharp scored
- 6. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:15CAREric Staal: Holding2 min
- P2 2:48CHIMichal Rozsival: Interference2 min
- P2 3:47CARDrayson Bowman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:05CHIJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:31CARRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
- P3 15:33CHIMichal Rozsival: Slashing2 min
- OT 2:30CHIBryan Bickell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestNordstrom – Shaw – Saad8:31
xG 1.01–0.49 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Bickell – Toews – Kane12:31
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Handzus – Hossa – Sharp10:04
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig7:55
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Leddy8:44
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook15:07
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson19:11
xG 0.81–1.06 (43%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Semin – Staal12:34
xG 0.78–0.70 (53%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Sutter – Bowman4:34
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Tlusty – Staal10:54
xG 0.20–0.52 (27%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nash – Skinner10:24
xG 0.09–0.98 (8%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Murphy2:40
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk2:08
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Harrison – Murphy16:23
xG 0.94–1.20 (44%)attempts 24–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).