Tue, Oct 15, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 28 | 18 | 325 |
| NSH | 16 | 19 | 215 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Fisher, Colin Wilson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:16FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Scott Gomez, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 12:48NSHMike FisherAssists: Craig Smith, Seth Jones · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 13:30FLAMarcel GocAssists: Jesse Winchester, Shawn Matthias · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 1:22NSHCraig SmithAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–3
- P3 5:13NSHPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: David Legwand, Filip Forsberg · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 11:37FLAMatt GilroyAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:36NSHCraig Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 12:55FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:19FLAMatt Gilroy: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Barch – Kopecky – Bjugstad5:29
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Goc – Matthias – Winchester9:07
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Matthias2:51
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Versteeg – Huberdeau12:23
xG 0.32–0.93 (25%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert13:58
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gilroy2:54
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Weaver – Kulikov14:22
xG 0.49–0.98 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Smith – Bourque9:15
xG 0.70–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson12:03
xG 0.86–0.36 (70%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Stalberg4:06
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Legwand – Stalberg – Forsberg2:10
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Jones17:04
xG 1.37–0.24 (85%)attempts 20–11goals 3–1
- Klein – Ekholm19:21
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Bartley – Ellis13:02
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).