Tue, Oct 15, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Ottawa Senators 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 012 | 111 | 28 | 11 | 432 |
| PHX | 04 | 217 | 113 | 03 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:18PHXRob KlinkhammerAssists: Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 2:35PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 8:42OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 1:50OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 7:19OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Milan Michalek · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 16:30PHXMike RibeiroPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Antoine Vermette · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 2:48OTTCory ConacherGWGAssists: Marc Methot, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:46PHXMike Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:00OTTKyle Turris: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:13OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P2 12:14PHXMikkel Boedker: Interference2 min
- P3 7:02PHXMikkel Boedker: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 7:54OTTMarc Methot: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:04OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris13:27
xG 0.95–0.34 (74%)attempts 23–9goals 0–1
- Kassian – Condra – Pageau3:35
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Conacher12:13
xG 0.48–0.58 (45%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:46
xG 0.06–0.56 (9%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gryba8:34
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:09
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Cowen7:22
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Moss – Korpikoski8:29
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Halpern – Bissonnette – Chipchura4:27
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Klinkhammer12:53
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker10:23
xG 0.29–0.67 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson12:43
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Yandle – Schlemko16:05
xG 0.81–1.09 (43%)attempts 16–20goals 0–2
- Klesla – Stone15:38
xG 0.25–0.55 (31%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).