Wed, Oct 16, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Rangers 2, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 221 | 04 | 236 |
| WSH | 08 | 06 | 08 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:05NYRJohn MooreGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 13:51NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Brad Richards, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:03WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:03NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:15NYRAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:20NYRTaylor Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:42NYRJustin Falk: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:42WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:40WSHEric Fehr: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:42NYRAnton Stralman: Holding2 min
- P2 11:19WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:17WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 9:12NYRBrad Richards: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Brassard13:21
xG 1.60–0.45 (78%)attempts 30–11goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Fast6:26
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Stepan – Zuccarello7:36
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Moore – Dorsett – Miller6:32
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman16:24
xG 0.98–0.42 (70%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh14:03
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi2:37
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Erat – Beagle – Wilson3:40
xG 0.02–0.05 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr8:12
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Laich – Grabovski – Brouwer12:38
xG 0.35–0.82 (30%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:28
xG 0.25–1.18 (17%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson4:21
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Oleksy – Schmidt7:51
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Urbom – Oleksy2:45
xG 0.02–0.04 (37%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).