Thu, Oct 17, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Edmonton Oilers 2, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 27 | 014 | 08 | 229 |
| NYI | 116 | 29 | 015 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:59NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Travis Hamonic, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 15:52EDMTaylor HallAssists: Justin Schultz, Mark Arcobello · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:00EDMTaylor HallAssists: Mark Arcobello, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.37 xG2–1
- P2 4:54NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Matt Moulson, John Tavares · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 18:53NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:37EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:51EDMLuke Gazdic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:08NYIKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:26NYITravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
- P2 13:56NYIMatt Moulson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:56EDMNick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:12EDMJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:14EDMJustin Schultz: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arcobello won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Smyth – Hemsky – Gordon8:31
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Arcobello11:56
xG 0.79–0.81 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 2–1
- Jones – Gazdic – Acton2:13
xG 0.02–0.07 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov9:28
xG 0.12–0.59 (17%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry12:05
xG 1.22–0.48 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Schultz – Belov11:14
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2
- Ference – Schultz16:02
xG 0.28–1.23 (18%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Cizikas7:33
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bouchard – Bailey7:59
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Moulson – Regin – Clutterbuck8:11
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Grabner – Tavares10:02
xG 0.73–0.86 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey14:29
xG 0.84–0.28 (75%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Strait – Donovan9:39
xG 0.73–0.28 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:43
xG 0.85–1.49 (36%)attempts 12–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).