Thu, Oct 17, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 217 | 26 | 435 |
| PHI | 08 | 15 | 012 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:43PITJussi JokinenAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 12:13PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.30 xG2–0
- P2 19:58PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 17:28PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 19:47PITEvgeni MalkinENAssists: Craig Adams, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.56 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:01PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:56PHIAdam Hall: Interference2 min
- P1 8:26PITJoe Vitale: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:01PHIBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:26PHIKris Newbury: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:26PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:03PHILuke Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:00PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:15PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:23PITMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:55
xG 0.58–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Kobasew – Jokinen – Malkin6:46
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Adams – Glass – Sutter7:03
xG 0.07–0.47 (13%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Maatta2:40
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Maatta7:05
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Niskanen7:48
xG 0.52–0.60 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Raffl9:05
xG 0.74–0.66 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
- Talbot – Read – Couturier9:24
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hall – Newbury – Rinaldo4:25
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – McGinn7:19
xG 0.16–0.64 (20%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Gustafsson3:41
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Schenn3:13
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Streit – Gustafsson5:16
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).