Thu, Oct 17, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 210 | 112 | 333 |
| MTL | 214 | 111 | 211 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38MTLRene BourquePPAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 12:01MTLMichael BournivalAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 6:52MTLAndrei MarkovSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 7:41CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, David Savard · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–3
- P2 17:11CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 4:35CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Mark Letestu, Artem Anisimov · Backhand, 0.29 xG3–3
- P3 18:53MTLTomas PlekanecGWGAssists: Brian Gionta, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:44MTLTomas PlekanecENAssists: Brandon Prust, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:21CBJRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:54MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:09CBJR.J. Umberger: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:57MTLP.K. Subban: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:58MTLRyan White: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:44CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:42MTLBrian Gionta: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:39CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min
- P3 14:14MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:17MTLJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:53
xG 0.89–0.29 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Umberger – Anisimov – Johansen10:42
xG 0.77–0.23 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Craig – Boll4:58
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Comeau – Letestu – Collins6:45
xG 0.01–0.38 (3%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson16:00
xG 1.33–0.54 (71%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Nikitin – Savard12:48
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Murray13:54
xG 0.52–0.60 (47%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – White – Bournival7:34
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Brière – Bourque – Desharnais9:05
xG 0.04–0.27 (13%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:36
xG 0.29–0.60 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Gionta – Plekanec – Prust12:12
xG 0.60–1.03 (37%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban13:20
xG 0.87–0.68 (56%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Bouillon – Tinordi9:22
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gorges – Diaz15:46
xG 0.19–0.75 (20%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).