Thu, Oct 17, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 215 | 011 | 114 | 340 |
| FLA | 08 | 18 | 113 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:47BOSDougie HamiltonPPAssists: David Krejci, Zdeno Chara · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 12:32FLAKris VersteegAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 14:00FLAJesse WinchesterAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 19:01BOSReilly SmithGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:16FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24BOSReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:24FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Smith12:59
xG 1.25–0.23 (84%)attempts 24–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:13
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic13:28
xG 0.39–0.36 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Marchand – Caron10:19
xG 0.02–0.80 (2%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton16:05
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Krug13:09
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski15:21
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGoc – Matthias – Winchester2:19
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Goc – Upshall – Winchester3:04
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Upshall – Bjugstad3:18
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Huberdeau3:39
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilroy – Gudbranson11:45
xG 0.78–0.62 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Weaver – Kulikov13:39
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Campbell – Gilbert16:09
xG 0.46–0.99 (32%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).