Thu, Oct 17, 2013·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 19 | 010 | 01 | 1 | 328 |
| CHI | 113 | 15 | 08 | 03 | 0 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42CHIBrandon PirriAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 10:14STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 17:22CHIMarian HossaAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson · Slap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 18:13STLAlexander SteenAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 4. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 5. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:09CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:42CHIMichal Handzus: Elbowing2 min
- P2 7:18STLBarret Jackman: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:57STLVladimir Sobotka: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:30STLBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:14STLRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:14STLRoman Polak: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:14STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:14CHIBrandon Bollig: Instigator2 min
- P3 6:14CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:14CHIBrandon Bollig: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:33CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz6:54
xG 0.36–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie7:30
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Roy – Stewart – Paajarvi2:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Reaves – Paajarvi3:43
xG 0.05–0.06 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:44
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Leopold – Shattenkirk9:57
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo2:21
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Toews – Shaw3:24
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bickell – Toews – Kane9:22
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kruger – Bollig – Nordstrom5:55
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Pirri – Saad2:27
xG 0.01–0.09 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Keith2:06
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook17:53
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Brookbank – Leddy11:26
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).