Thu, Oct 17, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 3, Dallas Stars 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 211 | 17 | 011 | 06 | 0 | 335 |
| DAL | 112 | 210 | 09 | 00 | 1 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:09SJSTyler KennedyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 16:44DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–1
- P1 17:52SJSMatt NietoAssists: Joe Pavelski, Tommy Wingels · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 1:53DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Cody Eakin, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 12:30SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Antti Niemi · Wrap-around, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 12:58DALCody EakinAssists: Alex Chiasson, Ray Whitney · Snap, 0.24 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 2. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 3. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 4. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 5. DAL Alex Chiasson scored
- 6. SJS Brent Burns stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:53DALRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:59SJSJames Sheppard: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:15DALShawn Horcoff: Interference2 min
- P2 18:41DALShawn Horcoff: Holding2 min
- P2 19:40SJSMatt Irwin: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:40DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:40SJSMatt Irwin: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:41DALBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- OT 3:58DALSergei Gonchar: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Marleau – Kennedy – Couture10:21
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Pavelski – Wingels – Hertl4:32
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Wingels – Nieto4:43
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Desjardins – Kearns – Sheppard7:57
xG 0.07–0.31 (18%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Stuart2:08
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Irwin6:04
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Braun12:23
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Chiasson – Eakin10:44
xG 0.55–0.11 (84%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin12:03
xG 0.92–0.60 (61%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt7:40
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 2–9goals 0–2
- Cole – Horcoff – Nichushkin7:17
xG 0.15–0.51 (22%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon16:43
xG 0.94–0.46 (67%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Gonchar – Goligoski11:39
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Daley – Benn16:01
xG 0.76–0.91 (45%)attempts 23–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).