Thu, Oct 17, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 212 | 05 | 211 | 428 |
| COL | 010 | 213 | 017 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 15:00DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–0
- P2 2:36COLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Semyon Varlamov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 14:42COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 7:10DETJohan FranzenPPGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 13:35DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:13COLCody McLeod: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 2:13DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:13COLCody McLeod: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 3:45COLRyan Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:19DETTodd Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:19DETStephen Weiss: Interference2 min
- P2 0:42DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:08DETDrew Miller: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 13:08COLCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:08DETDrew Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:46COLJohn Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:34COLAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:39DETDanny DeKeyser: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Datsyuk – Zetterberg6:13
xG 1.27–0.26 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Cleary – Andersson3:44
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Zetterberg6:27
xG 0.19–0.25 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Weiss – Franzen – Abdelkader8:07
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – DeKeyser5:32
xG 0.83–0.19 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser5:35
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl3:17
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Stastny – Landeskog10:12
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Duchene10:21
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Parenteau – McGinn – MacKinnon9:28
xG 0.31–1.06 (23%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson11:58
xG 0.82–0.16 (84%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Sarich – Benoit12:03
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Guenin – Wilson11:21
xG 0.43–0.76 (36%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).