Fri, Oct 18, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 211 | 012 | 18 | 01 | 2 | 332 |
| WPG | 19 | 010 | 28 | 02 | 3 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:43STLDavid BackesAssists: T.J. Oshie · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 15:30WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Matt Halischuk · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 18:14STLAlexander SteenUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 3:34STLAlexander SteenAssists: David Backes, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–1
- P3 13:13WPGEvander KaneAssists: Bryan Little · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 18:06WPGToby EnstromAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
- 4. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 5. WPG Bryan Little scored
- 6. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 7. WPG Evander Kane stopped
- 8. STL Vladimir Sobotka stopped
- 9. WPG Anthony Peluso stopped
- 10. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 11. WPG Michael Frolik stopped
- 12. STL Patrik Berglund stopped
- 13. WPG Olli Jokinen scored
- 14. STL Chris Stewart stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:00WPGEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:53WPGEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:28STLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 11:30WPGToby Enstrom: Delaying game2 min
- OT 4:20STLPatrik Berglund: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie13:54
xG 0.99–0.41 (71%)attempts 15–12goals 3–1
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:58
xG 0.95–0.48 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Reaves – Paajarvi6:09
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Sobotka – Stewart9:18
xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:22
xG 1.45–0.66 (69%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Polak – Cole13:10
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Leopold – Shattenkirk14:16
xG 0.59–0.60 (50%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little2:04
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Halischuk – Wright3:12
xG 0.20–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Little – Kane12:55
xG 0.91–0.82 (53%)attempts 19–10goals 2–2
- Jokinen – Peluso – Cormier4:24
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien5:29
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian13:44
xG 0.86–0.50 (63%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Stuart – Clitsome2:56
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).