Fri, Oct 18, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 012 | 112 | 16 | 02 | 3 | 232 |
| ANA | 111 | 014 | 110 | 04 | 4 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 11:11PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: Keith Yandle, Mike Ribeiro · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 7:54PHXRostislav KleslaAssists: Martin Hanzal, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 17:58ANANick BoninoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Nick Bonino scored
- 2. PHX Mikkel Boedker stopped
- 3. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 4. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
- 5. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 6. PHX Mike Ribeiro scored
- 7. ANA Saku Koivu stopped
- 8. PHX Antoine Vermette stopped
- 9. ANA Teemu Selanne scored
- 10. PHX Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored
- 11. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 12. PHX Shane Doan stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:36ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:18PHXRostislav Klesla: Holding2 min
- P1 13:18ANAFrancois Beauchemin: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:30PHXKeith Yandle: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:05ANASami Vatanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:52ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min
- P2 18:12PHXLauri Korpikoski: Charging2 min
- P2 18:51ANACorey Perry: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:34ANAJakob Silfverberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:25ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:56PHXAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Perreault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Moss – Korpikoski6:54
xG 0.33–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker9:10
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Halpern – Bissonnette – Chipchura2:31
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Klinkhammer11:11
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Schlemko13:14
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle10:41
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson12:16
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Penner11:11
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Selanne – Perreault – Silfverberg7:47
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano7:20
xG 0.07–0.10 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Bonino – Palmieri – Etem5:24
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler12:18
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm12:18
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Allen – Beauchemin2:46
xG 0.08–0.19 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).