Sat, Oct 19, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Vancouver Canucks 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 115 | 113 | 19 | 02 | 0 | 339 |
| PIT | 15 | 18 | 112 | 03 | 1 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:49VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 15:44PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 7:56PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 12:44VANBrad RichardsonAssists: Dale Weise, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 12:50VANZack KassianAssists: David Booth, Kevin Bieksa · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 13:12PITOlli MaattaAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 2. VAN Mike Santorelli stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. VAN Alexander Edler stopped
- 5. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 6. VAN Ryan Kesler stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:19VANChris Higgins: Holding2 min
- P1 12:58PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:58VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:43VANJordan Schroeder: Holding2 min
- P2 4:35PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:08VANDale Weise: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 4:05VANJason Garrison: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:36VANChris Tanev: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Santorelli – Hansen6:00
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Higgins – Santorelli – Hansen6:38
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Richardson – Sestito – Weise2:32
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Booth – Schroeder – Kassian4:57
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Stanton8:26
xG 0.32–0.09 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Edler4:04
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Garrison – Stanton2:08
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby15:03
xG 0.95–0.32 (75%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Kobasew – Jokinen – Malkin10:00
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Glass – Conner – Sutter6:49
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin16:01
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Maatta11:08
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Niskanen13:00
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).