Sat, Oct 19, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Boston Bruins 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 37 | 15 | 522 |
| TBL | 09 | 05 | 09 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 4:37BOSAdam McQuaidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 14:52BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Reilly Smith, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 15:47BOSChris KellyAssists: Brad Marchand, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 0:34BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Daniel Paille · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–0
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:02TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:02BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:09TBLSami Salo: Holding2 min
- P1 8:29BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:26BOSDennis Seidenberg: Interference2 min
- P2 6:25TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:06BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:13TBLMatt Carle: Holding2 min
- P3 5:25TBLEric Brewer: Holding2 min
- P3 13:35BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:35TBLNate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:24BOSJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:24TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:24BOSJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:24TBLRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:24BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic10:24
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Smith10:32
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:52
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Marchand8:20
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Krug2:47
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug9:09
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:11
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos2:53
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos7:14
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Purcell – Johnson – Palat6:43
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie6:42
xG 0.16–0.21 (42%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Sustr9:56
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Gudas2:55
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Salo – Hedman6:43
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).