Sat, Oct 19, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 1, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 113 | 04 | 03 | 0 | 131 |
| FLA | 07 | 08 | 16 | 01 | 2 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:05MINJonas BrodinPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 6:49FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. FLA Brad Boyes scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:20MINNino Niederreiter: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:58MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:57FLABrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:26FLAJesse Winchester: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:51FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:08MINJustin Fontaine: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:37MINStephane Veilleux: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:08MINZenon Konopka: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:38FLAScott Gomez: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:19FLABrian Campbell: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Granlund – Niederreiter9:38
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Konopka – Mitchell4:22
xG 0.02–0.04 (32%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise12:35
xG 0.29–0.37 (43%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Fontaine6:36
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Dumba8:14
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon14:57
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin17:05
xG 0.21–0.42 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Upshall – Versteeg5:14
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Versteeg – Barkov4:07
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Fleischmann – Barkov5:10
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Matthias – Winchester – Bjugstad5:58
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov9:35
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov5:32
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gilbert7:10
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).