Sat, Oct 19, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 312 | 14 | 423 |
| NYI | 07 | 17 | 211 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:05CARJiri TlustyAssists: Eric Staal, Alexander Semin · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 6:36CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Ryan Murphy, Nathan Gerbe · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 13:37CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Riley Nash, Tuomo Ruutu · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 18:53NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald, John Tavares · Snap, 0.31 xG3–1
- P3 11:06CARJiri TlustyGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 13:19NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Matt Moulson · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 18:59NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Matt Moulson · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:36CARKevin Westgarth: Holding2 min
- P1 8:05CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:37NYIAndrew MacDonald: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:41NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:34CARJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:50NYIPierre-Marc Bouchard: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:52CARJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:57CARJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty9:25
xG 0.92–0.14 (87%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Ruutu – Nash – Skinner9:58
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Staal – Bowman3:48
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal13:35
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk16:31
xG 0.98–0.56 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 3–0
- Harrison – Murphy11:12
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Komisarek15:26
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Regin – Clutterbuck3:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Moulson – Bailey – Tavares2:51
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Regin – Clutterbuck – Grabner2:53
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas6:42
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – MacDonald2:00
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Strait – Hamonic3:47
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic4:16
xG 0.04–0.04 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).