Sat, Oct 19, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 03 | 16 | 011 | 120 |
| CHI | 09 | 320 | 011 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:32CHIBryan BickellAssists: Andrew Shaw, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 7:03TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 10:28CHIMichael KostkaGWGAssists: Brandon Pirri, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 16:49CHIBrandon PirriPPAssists: Brandon Saad, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:15CHIBrent Seabrook: Cross checking2 min
- P1 4:48TORDave Bolland: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:02CHIPatrick Sharp: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:18TORJay McClement: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:32CHIDuncan Keith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:55TORDion Phaneuf: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:04TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:04CHIMichael Kostka: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:45CHIBryan Bickell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:31CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri2:57
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Broll3:15
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Lupul – Bolland – Leivo6:39
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Kadri5:47
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ranger – Gardiner10:20
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Ranger – Gunnarsson2:41
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Rielly2:23
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad10:09
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Handzus – Sharp – Kane9:57
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Pirri – Bollig – Nordstrom3:35
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Sharp – Toews – Kane2:18
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson12:45
xG 0.74–0.09 (89%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Kostka – Leddy9:53
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook15:03
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 22–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).