Sat, Oct 19, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 2, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 210 | 013 | 010 | 233 |
| PHX | 016 | 16 | 411 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 8:02DETTodd BertuzziUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 19:00PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: Rob Klinkhammer, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 5:07PHXMike RibeiroAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–2
- P3 7:08PHXMartin HanzalGWGAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 13:14PHXMike RibeiroAssists: Mikkel Boedker, David Moss · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 19:59PHXMike SmithENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:08PHXMike Ribeiro: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:58DETKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:46DETBrian Lashoff: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:59DETBrian Lashoff: Diving2 min
- P3 9:59PHXLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:44PHXJeff Halpern: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Datsyuk – Zetterberg14:03
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 16–6goals 1–2
- Weiss – Franzen – Abdelkader9:50
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Miller – Glendening7:14
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Andersson8:27
xG 0.37–0.80 (31%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Quincey2:07
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl2:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff11:35
xG 0.55–0.54 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Moss – Boedker5:46
xG 0.70–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Klinkhammer2:27
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Halpern – Chipchura – Kennedy8:11
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Klinkhammer7:30
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle13:44
xG 0.78–0.17 (83%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Klesla – Schlemko12:07
xG 0.49–0.22 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Morris – Klesla3:45
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).