Sun, Oct 20, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vancouver Canucks 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 013 | 19 | 016 | 138 |
| CBJ | 12 | 014 | 213 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27CBJMarian GaborikAssists: Artem Anisimov, James Wisniewski · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 10:42VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Jason Garrison, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–1
- P3 11:14CBJR.J. UmbergerGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Dalton Prout · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 19:33CBJRyan JohansenENAssists: R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:22CBJBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:40VANJeremy Welsh: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:10CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:18VANDale Weise: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:39CBJRyan Murray: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:53VANMike Santorelli: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:20VANAlexander Edler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:51VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:51CBJJared Boll: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:51VANBrad Richardson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Santorelli – Hansen3:13
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kesler6:12
xG 0.16–0.08 (68%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Hansen2:48
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Higgins – Santorelli – Hansen5:05
xG 0.07–0.05 (56%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev10:15
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 13–2goals 0–1
- Edler – Garrison2:01
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Stanton8:51
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner8:26
xG 0.63–0.07 (90%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Umberger – Comeau – Johansen10:49
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 4–15goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Letestu3:53
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Foligno – Anisimov8:49
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard11:54
xG 0.78–0.42 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout14:03
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Murray12:02
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).