Sun, Oct 20, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 37 | 07 | 326 |
| WPG | 015 | 011 | 113 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:20NSHEric NystromSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 12:07NSHPatric HornqvistGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.30 xG2–0
- P2 14:57NSHMatt CullenAssists: Craig Smith, Colin Wilson · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 9:13WPGEvander KaneAssists: Olli Jokinen, Devin Setoguchi · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:58NSHMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:10NSHMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:50WPGZach Bogosian: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:55WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:54NSHMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:56WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Smith – Bourque8:36
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson11:49
xG 0.86–0.78 (53%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Stalberg8:41
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Spaling – Forsberg8:22
xG 0.06–0.31 (17%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Ellis8:38
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Klein – Ekholm16:45
xG 0.54–0.70 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Weber – Jones18:54
xG 0.48–1.07 (31%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Setoguchi – Kane6:58
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Peluso – Cormier – Wright7:09
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Frolik – Scheifele5:55
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little4:59
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Clitsome17:18
xG 1.01–0.71 (59%)attempts 26–10goals 0–0
- Pardy – Postma11:25
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian14:40
xG 0.27–0.61 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).