Sun, Oct 20, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 3, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 312 | 012 | 012 | 336 |
| ANA | 113 | 323 | 211 | 647 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:38ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 10:15DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 14:38DALBrenden DillonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Shawn Horcoff · Deflected, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 18:55DALShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Erik Cole, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 0:54ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Daniel Winnik · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 11:48ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–3
- P2 18:55ANAEmerson EtemSHGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Bryan Allen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 4:26ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 15:12ANAMathieu PerreaultAssists: Emerson Etem, Cam Fowler · Deflected, 0.21 xG3–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 1:39DALRyan Garbutt: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:46DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:38ANADustin Penner: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:22DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:19DALShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23ANASami Vatanen: Holding2 min
- P2 15:27DALShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:11DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:11DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:11ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:11ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:52ANADaniel Winnik: Elbowing2 min
- P3 0:14ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 7:00DALAlex Goligoski: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:00ANAAndrew Cogliano: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:51DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:46DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:46ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPeverley – Benn – Seguin8:29
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Benn – Seguin4:04
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt4:15
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Garbutt3:25
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon16:19
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Gonchar – Benn12:06
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski11:47
xG 0.18–0.70 (20%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Perreault – Silfverberg7:35
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri3:34
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner5:32
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Bonino – Palmieri – Etem6:53
xG 0.07–0.24 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler13:00
xG 0.83–0.39 (68%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Allen – Vatanen14:14
xG 0.89–0.63 (59%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm14:06
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).