Mon, Oct 21, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 1, Detroit Red Wings 0 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 012 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 127 |
| DET | 04 | 07 | 012 | 01 | 0 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
- 3. DET Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 4. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:30DETPavel Datsyuk: Interference2 min
- P1 6:53SJSTyler Kennedy: Holding2 min
- P1 12:12DETTodd Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:40DETKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:03SJSJames Sheppard: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Thornton – Hamilton – Hertl10:31
xG 0.35–0.30 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Sheppard – McCarthy6:59
xG 0.01–0.06 (17%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kennedy – Couture11:21
xG 0.14–0.39 (26%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Wingels – Nieto7:17
xG 0.05–0.83 (6%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Vlasic2:28
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hannan – Braun2:12
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Irwin12:04
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Alfredsson – Franzen11:43
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader13:05
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Cleary – Weiss – Tatar8:42
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Andersson5:59
xG 0.07–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Lashoff15:42
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Ouellet13:59
xG 0.48–0.16 (74%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:32
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).