Mon, Oct 21, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 15 | 05 | 114 |
| PIT | 011 | 07 | 016 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:26COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Ryan Wilson, Cory Sarich · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:57COLNate Guenin: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:43COLPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:57COLCory Sarich: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:02COLSteve Downie: Elbowing2 min
- P2 1:36PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:18COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:32PITCraig Adams: Interference2 min
- P2 18:13PITChris Kunitz: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:08COLSteve Downie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:40COLErik Johnson: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:04COLNate Guenin: Holding2 min
- P3 19:04PITJussi Jokinen: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Stastny – Landeskog8:20
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Duchene12:31
xG 0.28–0.41 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – MacKinnon7:10
xG 0.03–0.48 (5%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Benoit9:36
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Guenin – Wilson9:15
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson11:36
xG 0.15–0.48 (24%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Crosby2:29
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:04
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale3:14
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Glass – Conner – Sutter3:54
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Maatta2:35
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Niskanen3:35
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Orpik6:12
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).