Mon, Oct 21, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 04 | 211 | 110 | 325 |
| LAK | 18 | 111 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:36LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 2:50CGYMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 13:39CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P2 16:40LAKJeff CarterSHAssists: Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 19:30CGYTJ BrodiePPGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:52CGYCurtis Glencross: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:52CGYLee Stempniak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:14LAKKyle Clifford: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:19CGYSven Baertschi: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:28LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:12LAKDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:26LAKRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
- P3 6:36LAKJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:48LAKAnze Kopitar: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Colborne7:29
xG 0.94–0.29 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Bouma – Street2:42
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Baertschi – Monahan12:16
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Glencross – Galiardi – Backlund10:48
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie13:17
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell13:32
xG 0.75–0.60 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Butler8:31
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Carcillo – Frattin3:50
xG 0.59–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Fraser – Lewis – Clifford2:40
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar12:05
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Stoll – Carcillo – Lewis2:46
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty16:06
xG 0.91–0.48 (66%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Greene – Muzzin9:26
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Voynov14:11
xG 0.66–0.81 (45%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).