Tue, Oct 22, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 16 | 013 | 225 |
| TOR | 02 | 310 | 111 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:38ANANick BoninoAssists: Patrick Maroon, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 1:59ANAMathieu PerreaultAssists: Sami Vatanen, Emerson Etem · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 7:44TORPhil KesselPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–1
- P2 9:03TORDion PhaneufAssists: Josh Leivo, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 16:09TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Paul Ranger · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 8:11TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:57ANABen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:24TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P2 2:46ANABryan Allen: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:48ANACorey Perry: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:09TORJay McClement: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:42TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00TORCarl Gunnarsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:49TORPaul Ranger: Holding2 min
- P3 13:01ANAJakob Silfverberg: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Perreault – Etem5:52
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon3:52
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Bonino – Maroon – Silfverberg5:40
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri7:05
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm12:59
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Allen – Vatanen12:14
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler9:39
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestOrr – McClement – Bolland4:36
xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Bolland – Leivo4:35
xG 0.05–0.05 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Orr – Bodie – Smith3:04
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri13:38
xG 0.47–0.73 (39%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Franson – Rielly11:16
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
- Ranger – Gardiner13:40
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson8:59
xG 0.02–0.41 (5%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).