Tue, Oct 22, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Vancouver Canucks 5, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 212 | 08 | 14 | 533 |
| NYI | 212 | 111 | 19 | 00 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Peter Regin, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 4:41NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–2
- P1 4:57VANRyan KeslerAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.26 xG1–2
- P1 9:09VANDaniel SedinAssists: Jannik Hansen, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 4:48NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 12:39VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–3
- P2 19:42VANChris HigginsAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.49 xG4–3
- P3 18:48NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–4
- OT 2:16VANBrad RichardsonGWGAssists: Mike Santorelli, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:03VANChris Higgins: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:38NYIBrian Strait: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:56VANHenrik Sedin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:51VANHenrik Sedin: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:42NYIFrans Nielsen: Elbowing2 min
- P3 15:18VANHenrik Sedin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Santorelli – Hansen2:41
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Higgins – Santorelli – Kassian8:41
xG 0.61–0.13 (83%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kesler10:11
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Sedin – Higgins – Kesler6:28
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Edler6:19
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev14:00
xG 1.01–0.73 (58%)attempts 23–10goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa2:22
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bouchard – Bailey11:02
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Regin – Clutterbuck – Nelson6:55
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas10:05
xG 0.64–0.82 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares11:03
xG 0.38–1.14 (25%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carkner – Hickey9:52
xG 0.76–0.93 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Strait – Donovan15:17
xG 1.07–1.28 (46%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic19:53
xG 0.86–1.24 (41%)attempts 18–25goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).