Tue, Oct 22, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 215 | 29 | 432 |
| MTL | 214 | 011 | 17 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:36MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Michael Bournival · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 18:03MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 12:50EDMAles HemskyAssists: Mark Arcobello · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:37EDMLadislav SmidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 7:59EDMJeff PetryAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 9:57EDMRyan JonesGWGAssists: David Perron, Mark Arcobello · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–2
- P3 19:57MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Backhand, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:41EDMDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:30EDMLuke Gazdic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:44MTLTravis Moen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:44EDMLuke Gazdic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:52MTLMichael Bournival: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:52EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:02MTLDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min
- P3 7:40MTLRyan White: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:40EDMRyan Jones: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Perron – Arcobello12:59
xG 0.90–0.67 (57%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Eager – Gazdic – Acton4:12
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov11:57
xG 0.77–0.90 (46%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Gordon – Jones – Pitlick8:22
xG 0.06–0.26 (17%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry14:51
xG 0.89–0.60 (60%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Schultz – Belov16:58
xG 0.77–0.57 (58%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Ference – Schultz11:16
xG 0.44–0.85 (34%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk13:40
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Moen – Bourque – Desharnais9:10
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bournival10:43
xG 0.47–0.73 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Blunden – White – Holland4:47
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Diaz13:57
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:22
xG 1.12–0.78 (59%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Bouillon – Beaulieu9:44
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).