Tue, Oct 22, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 012 | 210 | 06 | 01 | 2 | 329 |
| FLA | 06 | 08 | 27 | 01 | 0 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:18CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 16:49CHIBryan BickellAssists: Andrew Shaw, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 9:04FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 11:51FLADmitry KulikovUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. FLA Brad Boyes stopped
- 5. CHI Patrick Sharp scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:36FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:22CHIJonathan Toews: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:43FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:24CHIMichal Handzus: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad13:40
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Smith – Pirri – Bollig6:55
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Bickell – Kruger – Shaw12:11
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Handzus – Sharp – Kane12:44
xG 0.34–0.64 (35%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook17:15
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 21–9goals 0–2
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson16:58
xG 0.46–0.49 (49%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Leddy16:30
xG 0.51–0.60 (46%)attempts 16–23goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Versteeg – Barkov13:24
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Boyes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau6:13
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Winchester – Bjugstad – Huberdeau5:37
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Upshall – Winchester3:25
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilroy – Gudbranson11:39
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov16:31
xG 0.63–0.72 (47%)attempts 18–15goals 2–1
- Weaver – Gilbert16:15
xG 0.49–0.79 (38%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).