Tue, Oct 22, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 5, Winnipeg Jets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 312 | 111 | 00 | 4 | 532 |
| WPG | 011 | 319 | 114 | 03 | 3 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:11WSHMikhail GrabovskiAssists: John Erskine, Joel Ward · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 7:21WPGBryan LittleSHAssists: Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.44 xG1–1
- P2 8:31WPGGrant ClitsomeAssists: Zach Bogosian, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 15:50WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 18:02WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 19:21WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Evander Kane, Mark Scheifele · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 4:56WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.30 xG4–3
- P3 7:04WPGBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd, Devin Setoguchi · Snap, 0.15 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 2. WSH Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 3. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 7. WPG Olli Jokinen scored
- 8. WSH Brooks Laich scored
- 9. WPG Devin Setoguchi scored
- 10. WSH Troy Brouwer scored
- 11. WPG Evander Kane stopped
- 12. WSH Martin Erat scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:27WPGAnthony Peluso: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:27WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:27WSHJohn Erskine: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:13WPGPatrice Cormier: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:13WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:13WPGPatrice Cormier: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:16WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:32WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P2 10:01WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:23WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:45WPGOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:55WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Grabovski9:55
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Fehr – Volpatti – Wilson5:44
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson9:57
xG 0.63–0.94 (40%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer11:32
xG 0.14–0.46 (23%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Oleksy12:21
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Oleksy – Schmidt2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson17:09
xG 0.21–0.79 (21%)attempts 9–20goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Kane – Scheifele16:14
xG 0.94–0.32 (75%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Ladd – Setoguchi – Little9:36
xG 0.99–0.60 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Frolik – Wright4:04
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Frolik – Peluso6:21
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Clitsome14:05
xG 1.17–0.74 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 1–2
- Enstrom – Bogosian16:40
xG 0.83–0.53 (61%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Pardy – Postma11:44
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).