Wed, Oct 23, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 6, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 39 | 112 | 27 | 628 |
| DET | 112 | 013 | 07 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46OTTEric GrybaAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 10:48OTTJason SpezzaPPGWGAssists: Chris Phillips, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 14:14OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Joe Corvo, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P1 16:14DETTodd BertuzziPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 5:12OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–1
- P3 1:50OTTJared CowenAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–1
- P3 6:13OTTBobby RyanAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:22DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:07DETKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:56OTTColin Greening: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:49OTTBobby Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:23OTTJared Cowen: Elbowing2 min
- P3 10:57DETDaniel Alfredsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris14:07
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Conacher10:59
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening11:43
xG 0.60–0.59 (51%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Condra – Grant – Zibanejad8:46
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Cowen13:05
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Methot – Karlsson20:08
xG 0.87–0.59 (60%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:25
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Weiss – Tatar2:38
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Datsyuk – Tatar3:57
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Andersson9:57
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader2:59
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser16:22
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Kindl – Lashoff11:52
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Kindl2:49
xG 0.03–0.23 (11%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).