Thu, Oct 24, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 012 | 010 | 131 |
| PHI | 110 | 08 | 19 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07PHIMatt ReadSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 18:56NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Chris Kreider, John Moore · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 3:33PHIBraydon CoburnGWGAssists: Matt Read, Nicklas Grossmann · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:09NYRBrian Boyle: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:26PHITye McGinn: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:32NYRBrad Richards: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:26NYRDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:26PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:02NYRBrian Boyle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:09PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:09NYRBrandon Mashinter: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:09NYRDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:00NYRBenoit Pouliot: Boarding5 min
- P2 17:00NYRBenoit Pouliot: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:52PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Brassard – Miller6:11
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Brassard – Miller4:02
xG 0.35–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Stepan – Kreider14:27
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Boyle – Fast6:01
xG 0.01–0.05 (19%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Moore13:50
xG 0.48–0.51 (49%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Staal – Stralman13:07
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh13:32
xG 0.13–0.51 (20%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier10:40
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Voracek – Schenn – McGinn6:39
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Schenn2:37
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hall – Talbot – Rinaldo4:01
xG 0.04–0.04 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Grossmann16:02
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 14–25goals 1–1
- Timonen – Gustafsson11:04
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Streit – Schenn11:08
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).