Thu, Oct 24, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 112 | 07 | 128 |
| MIN | 210 | 06 | 111 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:21MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 11:55MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 6:01CARAlexander SeminPPAssists: Eric Staal, Andrej Sekera · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:34MINDany HeatleyENAssists: Matt Cooke, Nate Prosser · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:52CARBrett Bellemore: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:03CARAlexander Semin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:44MINMarco Scandella: Holding2 min
- P2 0:27MINMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:02MINDany Heatley: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:22CARTuomo Ruutu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:45MINTorrey Mitchell: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:01MINStephane Veilleux: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:49CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:22CARRadek Dvorak: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Gerbe – Staal9:18
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Nash – Skinner5:00
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty9:56
xG 0.13–0.26 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Nash – Bowman5:26
xG 0.05–0.37 (12%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore13:49
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk10:44
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Harrison – Murphy13:02
xG 0.29–0.78 (27%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Niederreiter4:41
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Mitchell2:48
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Konopka – Mitchell5:08
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter2:48
xG 0.03–0.05 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon14:59
xG 0.64–0.27 (71%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Stoner – Prosser2:27
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Suter – Stoner2:02
xG 0.01–0.02 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).