Thu, Oct 24, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 19 | 010 | 129 |
| DAL | 18 | 315 | 111 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04DALAlex ChiassonAssists: Ray Whitney, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 4:30CGYLee StempniakAssists: Matt Stajan, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:11DALAlex ChiassonGWGAssists: Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 11:29DALJamie BennAssists: Rich Peverley, Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 12:12DALBrenden DillonAssists: Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 3:36DALJamie BennAssists: Alex Chiasson · Wrap-around, 0.16 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:41DALKevin Connauton: Holding2 min
- P2 13:48CGYChris Breen: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:48DALLane MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:25DALAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:58CGYTim Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:32CGYKarri Ramo: Interference2 min
- P3 15:23CGYShane O'Brien: Delaying game2 min
- P3 15:23CGYDavid Jones: Abuse of officials2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Jackman – Colborne – Bouma5:33
xG 0.01–0.11 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross13:08
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Hudler – Monahan10:36
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Jones – Galiardi – Backlund9:57
xG 0.29–0.85 (25%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Brodie13:23
xG 0.62–0.50 (56%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
- Wideman – Butler2:00
xG 0.13–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Breen9:33
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Horcoff – Nichushkin12:43
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin9:52
xG 0.79–0.52 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Fiddler – Roussel – MacDermid5:52
xG 0.23–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin11:53
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon17:39
xG 1.11–0.38 (75%)attempts 26–15goals 3–0
- Gonchar – Connauton14:29
xG 1.15–0.87 (57%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Daley – Benn14:47
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).