Thu, Oct 24, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Washington Capitals 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 17 | 28 | 426 |
| EDM | 012 | 010 | 19 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:13WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 15:35WSHJoel WardGWGAssists: Jason Chimera, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 1:24WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Marcus Johansson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 13:23WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 17:56EDMJustin SchultzAssists: David Perron, Anton Belov · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:40WSHTom Wilson: Elbowing2 min
- P2 1:09WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:37EDMAnton Belov: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:53WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:32EDMDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:08WSHMike Green: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:08EDMDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Grabovski13:08
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson11:11
xG 0.71–0.63 (53%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Fehr – Volpatti – Wilson9:21
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer11:26
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson11:09
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Green – Schmidt17:20
xG 0.54–0.65 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Erskine – Oleksy14:36
xG 0.17–0.61 (21%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Perron – Arcobello12:57
xG 0.68–0.15 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Eager – Gazdic – Acton5:45
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov13:03
xG 0.58–0.93 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–4
- Gordon – Jones – Pitlick9:03
xG 0.20–0.55 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Belov16:46
xG 0.61–0.31 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Smid – Petry14:49
xG 0.68–0.65 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
- Ference – Schultz13:25
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).