Thu, Oct 24, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Los Angeles Kings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 05 | 212 | 211 | 428 |
| LAK | 415 | 012 | 311 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Justin Williams, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 4:17LAKDwight KingAssists: Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 10:14LAKJordan NolanAssists: Colin Fraser, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–3
- P1 17:56LAKDwight KingAssists: Robyn Regehr, Justin Williams · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–4
- P2 10:27PHXJeff HalpernAssists: Paul Bissonnette, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 14:22PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Radim Vrbata · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 1:51PHXMartin HanzalPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Radim Vrbata · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 2:50PHXShane DoanAssists: Derek Morris, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 4:19LAKMike RichardsSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 12:11LAKMatt FrattinAssists: Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–6
- P3 19:38LAKDwight KingENAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:21PHXAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:14PHXDerek Morris: Interference2 min
- P1 7:29LAKWillie Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:12LAKJake Muzzin: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:01PHXJeff Halpern: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:03LAKWillie Mitchell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:31LAKJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:29PHXDavid Schlemko: Holding2 min
- P3 16:24PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Boedker2:14
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Halpern – Bissonnette – Yip5:56
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Vermette – Moss – Klinkhammer2:19
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Boedker3:45
xG 0.15–0.30 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Yandle2:19
xG 0.52–0.16 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Ekman-Larsson3:41
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Morris – Ekman-Larsson2:22
xG 0.02–0.02 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kopitar – King11:54
xG 0.97–0.34 (74%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Carter – Richards – Frattin10:55
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Stoll – Brown – Lewis11:01
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Fraser – Carcillo – Nolan3:42
xG 0.01–0.44 (2%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty15:39
xG 0.78–0.57 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Greene – Muzzin10:49
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Voynov14:51
xG 0.65–0.52 (55%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).