Fri, Oct 25, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 18 | 112 | 225 |
| CBJ | 116 | 07 | 413 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55CBJRyan MurrayPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.57 xG0–1
- P2 0:40TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 3:12CBJMarian GaborikAssists: Nick Foligno, Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 12:27CBJBrandon DubinskySHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 15:30TORDave BollandAssists: Paul Ranger, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
- P3 19:33CBJRyan JohansenENAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–4
- P3 19:53CBJNick FolignoAssists: Mark Letestu, Fedor Tyutin · Snap, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:16TORDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:07TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:07CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:54TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P2 4:53TORDave Bolland: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:08CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
- P2 13:40TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:51TORNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:53CBJMarian Gaborik: Holding2 min
- P3 10:51TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:51CBJDalton Prout: Interference2 min
- P3 11:52CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:09TORDave Bolland: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak8:14
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Orr – McLaren – Smith2:59
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Clarkson – Bolland7:06
xG 0.36–0.41 (46%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Raymond – Kadri – Leivo4:38
xG 0.03–0.17 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson7:42
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Franson – Rielly9:13
xG 0.09–0.20 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Ranger – Gardiner11:10
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner6:46
xG 0.47–0.06 (88%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Foligno – Anisimov6:22
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Boll – Letestu4:32
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Umberger – Comeau – Johansen6:46
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout12:22
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard11:55
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Wisniewski – Murray13:28
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).