Fri, Oct 25, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Anaheim Ducks 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 212 | 010 | 06 | 228 |
| OTT | 07 | 18 | 012 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:38ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 9:04OTTMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Phillips, Milan Michalek · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:59OTTChris Neil: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:21OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:32ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:19ANASaku Koivu: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:11OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:09OTTEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:04OTTEric Gryba: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:42ANABryan Allen: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:02ANAAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Perreault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Maroon11:05
xG 1.12–0.33 (77%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Perreault – Palmieri – Etem5:10
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith-Pelly – Etem2:00
xG 0.12–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Winnik – Bonino – Smith-Pelly5:05
xG 0.11–0.37 (22%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm15:13
xG 0.91–0.62 (60%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler10:10
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Allen – Vatanen11:36
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Grant – Zibanejad3:31
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Conacher4:20
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Conacher3:29
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad3:46
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gryba7:35
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:01
xG 0.55–0.54 (50%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
- Phillips – Karlsson2:19
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).