Sat, Oct 26, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
New Jersey Devils 4, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 16 | 115 | 211 | 432 |
| BOS | 310 | 011 | 07 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:19BOSJarome IginlaAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Tuukka Rask · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 11:24NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Eric Gelinas, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 19:04BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 19:32NJDDamien BrunnerPPAssists: Steve Bernier, Andy Greene · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:52NJDMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Michael Ryder · Slap, 0.00 xG3–3
- P3 19:15NJDAndy GreenePPGWGAssists: Damien Brunner, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:41NJDDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:28BOSJohnny Boychuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:58NJDDamien Brunner: Interference2 min
- P2 8:10BOSReilly Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 18:03BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:27BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P3 16:45BOSTorey Krug: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 18:11BOSPatrice Bergeron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Loktionov won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Gionta – Carter8:10
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Elias – Zajac2:00
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Elias – Loktionov11:03
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Ryder – Olesz – Henrique9:19
xG 0.10–0.44 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Greene3:57
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky11:09
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
- Fayne – Greene14:34
xG 0.27–0.51 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic12:33
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Caron8:47
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Bergeron – Smith2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith9:42
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hamilton12:41
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- McQuaid – Krug13:21
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton2:17
xG 0.06–0.01 (86%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).