Sat, Oct 26, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 013 | 116 | 18 | 13 | 340 |
| DET | 116 | 18 | 010 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:12DETDrew MillerAssists: Joakim Andersson, Danny DeKeyser · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 17:20NYRBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Brian Boyle, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:49DETDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 2:18NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Dominic Moore, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–2
- OT 4:47NYRDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Benoit Pouliot · Snap, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:08NYRBenoit Pouliot: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 6:38NYRTaylor Pyatt: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:27DETBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:53DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:32NYRTaylor Pyatt: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:24DETKyle Quincey: Holding2 min
- P3 7:12NYRJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Zuccarello – Fast6:21
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Pouliot – Brassard – Miller8:03
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Richards – Stepan – Kreider12:12
xG 0.45–0.28 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Dorsett10:44
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman13:39
xG 1.14–0.47 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh16:41
xG 0.63–0.32 (66%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Moore11:44
xG 0.26–0.69 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Datsyuk – Zetterberg4:30
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Franzen – Abdelkader – Tatar3:36
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cleary – Weiss – Miller3:20
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Tatar7:15
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:21
xG 0.38–0.42 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith14:44
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff13:37
xG 0.13–1.08 (11%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).