Sat, Oct 26, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 014 | 111 | 07 | 06 | 1 | 238 |
| DAL | 08 | 010 | 116 | 02 | 0 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:28WPGEvander KaneAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Stuart · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 6:36DALStephane RobidasAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Lane MacDermid · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 2. WPG Olli Jokinen stopped
- 3. DAL Alex Chiasson stopped
- 4. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
- 5. DAL Ray Whitney stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:33DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:59WPGBryan Little: Holding2 min
- P2 1:07WPGBryan Little: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:51DALStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
- P2 14:01WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:34WPGEric Tangradi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Setoguchi – Little10:29
xG 0.97–0.58 (63%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Tangradi – Halischuk – Wright3:52
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Kane6:40
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Frolik – Peluso3:07
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Clitsome16:01
xG 1.30–1.04 (56%)attempts 21–23goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Bogosian17:32
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma10:10
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Horcoff – Nichushkin9:07
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin9:51
xG 0.90–0.95 (49%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – MacDermid5:03
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Cole – Benn – Seguin2:51
xG 0.01–0.21 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon14:51
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Benn14:37
xG 0.59–0.96 (38%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Daley14:53
xG 0.46–1.25 (27%)attempts 13–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).