Sat, Oct 26, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 4, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 211 | 17 | 430 |
| PHX | 07 | 312 | 29 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:59EDMTyler PitlickUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 0:47PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Shane Doan · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:20PHXMichael StoneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 5:47PHXDavid SchlemkoAssists: Tim Kennedy, Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 8:03EDMWill ActonAssists: Ben Eager, Luke Gazdic · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–3
- P2 19:03EDMDavid PerronAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 7:23EDMRyan JonesAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 10:40PHXKeith YandlePPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 12:23PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:34EDMRyan Jones: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:58EDMAles Hemsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:42PHXMartin Hanzal: Charging2 min
- P1 18:20PHXShane Doan: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:41EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:50EDMAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:21EDMMark Arcobello: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:34EDMLadislav Smid: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEager – Gazdic – Acton5:00
xG 0.56–0.06 (90%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Perron – Arcobello11:01
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Gordon – Jones – Pitlick5:17
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov7:48
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Belov12:56
xG 1.09–0.13 (89%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Ference – Grebeshkov11:51
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Smid – Petry14:29
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Moss – Boedker12:03
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Doan – Vermette – Klinkhammer13:29
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy10:15
xG 0.14–0.87 (14%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson14:02
xG 0.33–0.32 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle16:29
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Schlemko – Stone10:48
xG 0.28–1.06 (21%)attempts 12–14goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).