Sat, Oct 26, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Washington Capitals 2, Calgary Flames 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 18 | 013 | 229 |
| CGY | 317 | 09 | 27 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04CGYKris RussellAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 7:24CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Sean Monahan, Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–2
- P1 12:02WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Eric Fehr · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 12:50CGYMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman, Kris Russell · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 7:45WSHAaron VolpattiAssists: Nate Schmidt, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
- P3 10:17CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 14:28CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Matt Stajan, TJ Galiardi · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:36WSHSteve Oleksy: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:20CGYBrian McGrattan: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:57CGYMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:37WSHJason Chimera: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:47CGYDavid Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:09WSHBrooks Laich: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:43CGYMatt Stajan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colborne won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Fehr – Grabovski2:51
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Fehr – Volpatti – Wilson4:16
xG 0.03–0.02 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson11:55
xG 0.26–0.38 (40%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Grabovski9:31
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Erskine – Oleksy11:26
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Green – Schmidt14:56
xG 0.54–0.93 (37%)attempts 16–14goals 1–3
- Alzner – Carlson13:31
xG 0.27–0.80 (26%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Baertschi – Monahan11:36
xG 0.85–0.37 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Stajan – Jones – Glencross8:53
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Galiardi – Colborne11:42
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 3–1
- McGrattan – Backlund – Bouma4:28
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell17:28
xG 1.53–0.32 (83%)attempts 23–17goals 5–0
- Butler – Brodie15:21
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Wideman – Butler2:24
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).