Sun, Oct 27, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 312 | 011 | 26 | 529 |
| OTT | 117 | 112 | 011 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16SJSTomas HertlAssists: James Sheppard, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 6:35SJSAndrew DesjardinsAssists: Brad Stuart · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 11:07OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Kyle Turris, Cory Conacher · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 18:15SJSTommy WingelsSHGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–1
- P2 9:09OTTMarc MethotAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 1:29SJSJames SheppardAssists: Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 7:59SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Justin Braun, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:17SJSMike Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 1:54OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:21SJSMike Brown: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:16OTTJoe Corvo: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:37OTTChris Neil: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:17SJSMatt Irwin: Broken stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Sheppard – Hertl10:32
xG 0.73–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Pavelski – McCarthy – Wingels5:16
xG 0.35–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Brown – Desjardins – McCarthy2:45
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Wingels – Hamilton2:44
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Demers7:23
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Stuart – Irwin5:23
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Hannan – Stuart8:18
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Smith – Zibanejad11:00
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Conacher7:10
xG 0.38–0.03 (94%)attempts 14–1goals 1–0
- Ryan – Condra – Turris2:04
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Grant2:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson17:44
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 29–12goals 1–1
- Phillips – Cowen3:22
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Phillips – Wiercioch8:52
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).