Sun, Oct 27, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 28 | 18 | 010 | 02 | 2 | 428 |
| FLA | 110 | 09 | 210 | 03 | 1 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan Malone · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 4:35TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Malone, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 13:48FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jesse Winchester, Marcel Goc · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 9:58TBLRadko GudasPPAssists: Richard Panik, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 5:39FLANick BjugstadAssists: Scottie Upshall, Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 8:51FLABrad BoyesUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Valtteri Filppula scored
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 5. TBL Sami Salo stopped
- 6. FLA Brad Boyes scored
- 7. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
- 8. FLA Dmitry Kulikov stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:55TBLSami Salo: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:09TBLTeddy Purcell: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:18TBLRichard Panik: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:37FLABrian Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:07TBLMartin St. Louis: Holding2 min
- P2 9:12FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:51TBLRadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:51TBLRadko Gudas: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 12:51TBLRadko Gudas: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:51FLAScottie Upshall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:29FLATomas Kopecky: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Purcell – Killorn10:03
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos13:24
xG 0.62–0.46 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie4:07
xG 0.05–0.17 (24%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat9:40
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Sustr8:24
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas7:37
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Brewer – Hedman5:02
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov8:45
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Gomez – Bergenheim – Winchester4:18
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Upshall – Versteeg – Bjugstad9:04
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Matthias9:17
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov12:26
xG 0.68–0.50 (58%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Gilroy – Gudbranson12:49
xG 0.24–0.23 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Weaver – Gilbert12:58
xG 0.14–0.63 (19%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).