Sun, Oct 27, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Anaheim Ducks 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 211 | 212 | 432 |
| CBJ | 111 | 14 | 16 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:56CBJBlake ComeauAssists: Ryan Johansen, David Savard · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:19ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 6:59ANAPeter HollandAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 12:12CBJArtem AnisimovSHAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P3 1:51ANAEmerson EtemPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–2
- P3 8:24CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: James Wisniewski, Nick Foligno · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 17:35ANACorey PerryGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:27CBJMark Letestu: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:33CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:50CBJJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:25CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:25CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Interference5 min · PPG
- P3 18:33ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Maroon11:18
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Palmieri – Holland – Smith-Pelly6:39
xG 0.02–0.01 (73%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Selanne – Bonino – Etem6:10
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano7:42
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler14:21
xG 0.57–0.11 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Allen – Vatanen14:53
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm13:55
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Letestu – Atkinson7:56
xG 0.36–0.05 (89%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Umberger – Comeau – Johansen9:04
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Gaborik – Foligno – Anisimov9:42
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Craig – Boll – Chaput6:00
xG 0.01–0.26 (4%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray15:08
xG 0.77–0.07 (91%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Prout14:21
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- Johnson – Savard16:20
xG 0.30–0.77 (28%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).