Sun, Oct 27, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 111 | 06 | 225 |
| COL | 110 | 09 | 217 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04COLMatt DucheneAssists: Steve Downie, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:00WPGBryan LittleAssists: Adam Pardy, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 10:02WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little, Grant Clitsome · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 7:13COLJan HejdaAssists: Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 14:32COLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:37COLJan Hejda: Interference2 min
- P2 2:50WPGMichael Frolik: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:59COLCory Sarich: Interference2 min
- P2 9:26COLNate Guenin: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:26WPGOlli Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:53COLPatrick Bordeleau: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 18:17COLJan Hejda: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:14COLJohn Mitchell: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Wright
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Setoguchi – Little6:16
xG 0.89–0.40 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Jokinen – Ladd – Setoguchi2:07
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Kane2:43
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Tangradi – Wright7:05
xG 0.06–0.09 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Clitsome14:53
xG 1.03–0.66 (61%)attempts 15–18goals 0–2
- Stuart – Pardy12:51
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian14:26
xG 0.52–1.61 (24%)attempts 11–27goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – O'Reilly – Duchene4:44
xG 0.83–0.35 (70%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stastny – Landeskog11:08
xG 0.74–0.28 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Duchene9:26
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Mitchell – MacKinnon9:42
xG 0.35–0.53 (39%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Wilson9:08
xG 0.84–0.50 (63%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Wilson – Barrie3:15
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:24
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).