Mon, Oct 28, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 2, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 111 | 19 | 227 |
| NYR | 07 | 014 | 06 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:34MTLTomas PlekanecPPGWGAssists: Michael Bournival, Brian Gionta · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 17:09MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Lars Eller, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:36NYRJohn Moore: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:31MTLBrian Gionta: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:42NYRTaylor Pyatt: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:11MTLBrian Gionta: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:41MTLLouis Leblanc: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:53NYRBenoit Pouliot: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 15:56NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:12MTLBrian Gionta: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:12NYRRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:02NYRJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:16MTLDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
- P3 5:37NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
- P3 12:41MTLAndrei Markov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk7:03
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bournival6:26
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque2:08
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Bourque – Desharnais – Leblanc7:25
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban9:55
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Markov – Diaz2:51
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gorges – Diaz8:17
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Stepan – Kreider9:36
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Moore – Zuccarello – Fast4:40
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Dorsett4:56
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Miller6:50
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman9:27
xG 0.95–0.49 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Moore11:11
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh12:05
xG 0.04–0.31 (12%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).