Mon, Oct 28, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 17 | 211 | 210 | 528 |
| MIN | 010 | 113 | 07 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:33CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Marian Hossa, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 11:27MINJason PominvilleAssists: Mikael Granlund, Clayton Stoner · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 13:21CHISheldon BrookbankGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Brandon Pirri · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 16:43CHINick LeddyPPAssists: Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 2:47CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brandon Saad, Brandon Pirri · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 8:43CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:01MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:09CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding2 min
- P2 4:33MINZenon Konopka: Holding2 min
- P2 15:00MINMarco Scandella: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:39CHIBryan Bickell: Interference2 min
- P3 4:53CHIBrandon Bollig: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:21MINClayton Stoner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:21CHIBrandon Bollig: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:59CHIBrandon Saad: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:59MINNate Prosser: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:59CHISheldon Brookbank: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:59MINNate Prosser: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Morin – Shaw8:01
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Mills – Kruger – Bollig7:48
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews10:54
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Kane – Pirri – Saad10:28
xG 0.43–0.64 (40%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Brookbank – Leddy8:18
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Keith – Seabrook14:37
xG 0.53–0.74 (42%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson13:09
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Granlund – Niederreiter8:28
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Cooke – Brodziak – Mitchell2:06
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Konopka – Mitchell5:02
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Heatley – Brodziak8:51
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Dumba7:47
xG 0.44–0.18 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon13:29
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Stoner – Scandella3:05
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).