Mon, Oct 28, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Washington Capitals 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 03 | 17 | 219 |
| VAN | 111 | 016 | 214 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:31VANZack KassianAssists: Chris Higgins, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:36WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Mike Green, Nate Schmidt · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 1:52WSHMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Jason Chimera, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 2:53VANRyan KeslerAssists: Daniel Sedin, Ryan Stanton · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–2
- P3 5:01VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:19VANAlexander Edler: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 1:41VANRyan Stanton: Holding2 min
- P1 2:52WSHJoel Ward: Interference2 min
- P1 6:43WSHAaron Volpatti: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:52VANZack Kassian: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 3:22WSHMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:03VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P2 12:45WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:28WSHSteve Oleksy: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:38VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:53WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Santorelli won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Grabovski9:10
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Fehr – Volpatti – Wilson4:21
xG 0.04–0.07 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer8:13
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Grabovski2:46
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Schmidt14:02
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Urbom – Oleksy9:46
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson13:27
xG 0.18–0.88 (17%)attempts 6–24goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Kesler11:07
xG 0.74–0.18 (81%)attempts 18–5goals 2–0
- Richardson – Kassian – Welsh3:09
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Sestito – Kassian5:21
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Higgins – Burrows – Santorelli8:57
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Stanton10:54
xG 0.54–0.12 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Edler – Garrison9:51
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Edler2:18
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).